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The Drought is natural climate variability?


I wonder how he validated his model that he ran backwards for 10 000 years, since it needed things like air pressure.


Dec. 28th, 2006 04:39 am (UTC)
1 in 1000 statements NEVER have merit with me. You can't claim something without the data for the period. That's my only issue with the 10 000 year drought record thing. They do it in my field too all the time. It's meaningless.

The issue with drought though is ... if you look at Perth rainfall, which is a classic if you want to study variability and possible climate shifts is there is a marked step down in yearly averagerainfall in the early 1970s that separates pre 1970s data to post 1970s data. Something happened around that time and the rainfall has never recovered. It's quite fascinating.
Dec. 28th, 2006 05:10 am (UTC)
Yeah, totally meaningless, as he says in that article. Most people also don't understand what that statement means in terms of hazards. You can have two 1 in 100 year events within 20 years.

There is definitely something going on in the southwest of WA, as he mentions:

Mr Hunt said the dry sequence in the southwest was different, with a decline over 30 years, which included the odd year of above-average rainfall.

"It isn't violating what I am saying, but it is a very unusual sequence of events there," he said.

Two years ago my uni (including my honours and masters supervisors) released a study on the decrease in rainfall in that area, and their modelling suggests it may mainly be due to widespread land clearing (also here).
Dec. 28th, 2006 05:12 am (UTC)
ooh thanks for those - i'll have a look at them later! That's part of paper 2!!!!

You can have a 1 in 100 year storm two years running. But trying frigging explaining that to planners. It does my head in!!!!!
Dec. 28th, 2006 05:20 am (UTC)
Pitman, A. J., G. T. Narisma, R. A. Pielke Sr., and N. J. Holbrook, 2004: The impact of land cover change on the climate of southwest Western Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 109, D18109, doi:10.1029/2003JD004347

There's a pdf here. Andy Pitman was my honours supervisor, Neil Holbrook my masters (and hence cohort in tropical cyclone forecasting).

People don't understand even the basics of risk. That's why they refuse to get their kids vaccinated on the minute risk of an adverse reaction, yet still strap them into the car or bathe them which have a much higher risk.
Dec. 28th, 2006 05:22 am (UTC)
I hear ya sista! Drives me nuts!!!! Chances of getting killed in a terrorist attack in London versus getting killed in a car accident and yet ppl tell me they are no longer travelling to Europe. And my sister totally picked her honeymoon location around tsunamis. *throws hands up in the air*

Thanks heaps for the pdf. I wonder if that counts as having worked on my thesis today?

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